Vol 5, No 16  Apr 15, 2024

Rates of Alcohol-Impaired Driving Fatalities Still Elevated, Down Just 0.7% in 2022, NHTSA Reports EXPRESS – Apr 8 Big increases in fatal motor vehicle crashes in 2020 and 2021 did not normalize to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, federal data released by the Natl Highway Traffic Safety Admin (NHTSA) shows. Total crash deaths declined 1.7% alongside a 2% increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). And encouragingly, preliminary data for 2023 suggested a larger, 3.6% dip in total crash deaths. But fatalities linked to alcohol-impaired driving did not decline as quickly in 2022.

Post-Easter STRs Compound MC Confidence in “Structural Shift”; Shelves, Strike and Summer Plans EXPRESS – Apr 9 April ain’t far enuf along for a clear picture of how the beer biz will lap last yr’s Bud Light backlash. But Molson Coors shipments to retailers in the week after Easter has MC prexy of US sales and distrib ops Brian Feiro feeling “really confident on how things are performing,” he told INSIGHTS on Apr 9. Making matter fuzzier, previous wk was an “Easter mismatch week” vs yr ago and next wk will likely show up “pretty soft” without holiday sales. Still, MC was “the fastest share gainer” in Q1 scan data from Circana, he added. Alongside MC cmo Sofia Colucci, Brian again pointed to shelf space gains for MC brands, including 13% gains for Coors Light and Miller Lite, 20% bump for Banquet.

Cutbacks A-Plenty in Bevs in Recent Weeks: Mananalu Water + Congo, G Fuel, Uptime Energy Drinks BEV INSIGHTS – Apr 9 Emerging-bev sector may be fundamentally healthy within broader economy that’s eluded predictions of recession, but that’s not to say there aren’t pockets of stress as companies adapt their hiring levels to sales trends and capital availability. Those cash stresses were cited two weeks ago by Gary Hirshberg when he dropped the in-person version of his annual boot camp for early-stage food/bevcos and in recent weeks we’ve been hearing quite a few reports of meaningful cutbacks in bevs. Fortunately, in robust ecosystem, many furloughed employees, particularly those on sales side, seem to be quickly landing on their feet. Companies undertaking cutbacks include several in growing but highly competitive energy segment, such as Alani Nu marketer Congo, as well as G Fuel and Uptime.

Gambrinus Founder Carlos Alvarez Passed Away EXPRESS – Apr 10 One of the beer industry’s titans of the last several decades, Carlos Alvarez, passed away last week. He was just 73, sources say. He was the founder and chairman of the Gambrinus Company, which imported the Modelo portfolio (principally Corona then) in the Eastern US from 1986 until 2006.  He built that business to well over $1 bil in revs and over $200 mil in annual profit, until Modelo terminated his importing rights. Those then went to Crown, at the time half-owned by Modelo, half by Constellation. But that was only one part of Carlos’ business success. He also bought a tiny craft brewer called Spoetzl in 1989 and methodically built the Shiner brand into the leading TX craft brand and one of the top national craft brewers.

Walmart Steps Up Pressure on Bevcos to Direct-Ship, with Poppi Acquiescing but Lemon Perfect Saying No; Spotty Performance of Beer Networks Seems to Be the Issue BEV INSIGHTS – Apr 10 It’s a tough world out there at retail. At a time Congo Brands is struggling to appease national network of wholesalers who’re indignant about its direct shipping of some items to Walmart chain, the gigaretailer has been stepping up pressure on other bevcos to drop DSD in favor of direct shipments. Poppi gut pop soda brand seems to be among latest to acquiesce, accepting big expansion offer with hope of returning customer to DSD in future, even as Lemon Perfect has declined at cost of having to exit retailer for now. From what we hear, other brands are feelin’ the heat too.

Tilray’s Bold Ambitions Meet Very Complex Reality; Stock Drops 20%; Missed Guidance CRAFT Apr – 10 Tilray’s stock dropped Apr 9 as it released Q3 results (thru Feb), falling further during/after marathon (nearly 90 minute) conference call that clearly didn’t convince investors. Stock now down yr-to-date, following runup during Q1. On conference call, Tilray CEO Irwin Simon made many sweeping statements about co’s big plans for cannabis and alc bev growth, but also noted headwinds, complicating factors and unknowns. Still, Tilray is growing rapidly, total revs up 30% to $188 mil. Adjusted EBITDA down $3.1 mil from $13.3 mil to $10.2 mil. Tho Tilray net loss still $100 mil in Q3, that’s down from $1.2 bil last yr. As always, co sees tremendous upside ahead. It has rapidly become one of largest and most intriguing craft players, currently #5 in craft with 4.5 share of segment, sez co.

NYT Taps Public Health-Aligned Writer to Press for Cancer Warnings ALCOHOL ISSUES – Apr 10 A familiar threat in a familiar source from a familiar writer still stung this week as readers of the NY Times were asked “should alcoholic beverages have cancer warning labels?” The story hinges on Ireland’s plan to require all alc bev packages to contain either a warning about liver disease or the phrase “there is a direct link between alcohol and fatal cancers.” A long-time coming and much contested, that law is still on a path toward implementation in 2026, recall. The claims, commentary and voices will all be familiar to long-time readers of AII, while others are just waking up to the louder drumbeat of these stories. In print, the story appeared Apr 9 just a couple pages after another recent Times story about increased alcohol use among older adults, which popped up online at the end of March.

STZ Revs Up 9%, Shipments Up 7.4% to Over 30 Mil Bbls, STRs 7.5% in Fiscal Yr; Strong Q4 EXPRESS – Apr 11 Constellation Brands Beer Division delivered yet another year of strong growth, reporting even better #s in Q4 (with 1 extra selling day) and guidance towards more high single digit rev beer growth in fiscal 2025 (Mar 2024 - Feb 2025). Its fourth quarter revs and earnings exceeded Wall St expectations. This was its “56th consecutive quarter of volume growth while maintaining best in class margins,” reminded STZ ceo Bill Newlands. Beer division revs climbed $700 mil, 9% to $8.165 bil for fiscal yr. Shipments up 18.9 mil cases (1.4 mil bbls) to 418.1 mil cases. That’s 30.3 mil bbls! Meanwhile depletions up 7.5%.

Beer Bouncing Back to Start 2024; Shipments +8% in Feb; Up 6% and 1.7 Mil Bbls YTD BEER INSIGHTS – Apr 12 A welcome sight to start the year. After consecutive yrs of outsized declines, US beer biz posted back-to-back mos of shipments growth. Up 8% in Feb following 4% jump in Jan, bringing total biz up 6% and ~1.7 mil bbls yr-to-date. Taxpaids grew 4.9% (1.1 mil bbls) YTD with imports +10.1% (613K bbls) as Mexican imports soared 16.9% on easy comps. But too soon to call it a turnaround as 12-mo rolling taxpaids still down 5.7%. Jan-Feb shipments also boosted by top 2 brewers building inventory ahead of potential strikes, with AB’s averted and MC’s ongoing at Fort Worth facility. Even an additional 1.7 mil bbls every 2 mos wouldn’t offset last yr’s near 11-mil bbl drop.

Red Bull Said to Terminate Beverage Works, Its Partner in NY/NJ for 24 Years; May Self-Distribute BEV INSIGHTS – Apr 12 Red Bull North America appears to have terminated one of its most venerable distribution partners, The Beverage Works, which handles its off-premise biz in NY/NJ metro and for some time was its biggest DSD partner in the world. It’s presumed Red Bull will move to self-distribution model there, as it does in most major metros by now. Asked about reports of termination, BevWorks owner Mark Ponsiglione told us at noon that he was prepping statement in response, but it hadn’t come thru as of our deadline. No response from RBNA either. Word is that BevWorks is evaluating whether to continue operating with portfolio of other bev brands.

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