Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Miller domestic volume down 3% since SABMiller took over, it said. That’s including malternatives. So its beer brands down more like 5%. Ouch! Management “focus on a wide range of business areas and initiatives continues,” wrote SABMiller. South African biz, which new Miller prexy Norman Adami had been running, up 2.6% in qtr. Latest results in South Africa “ahead of our expectations” while “Miller looks to be a little worse,” Deutsche Securities analyst told AP.
Yep, Virgis Colbert, Miller’s exec veep of worldwide operations, was just named to ultra exclusive Augusta National Golf Club, which only has about 300 members. He is 1 of a handful of African-American members too, wrote Mil Jnl Sentinel. According to list of members published sometime back, Pete Coors only other beer biz guy who belongs. Virgis is in august company: Bill Gates just joined too.
Out with old and in with new? New entry Michelob Ultra got a full 1 share of volume in supers (1.2 of $$) in 13 weeks thru Dec 29, according to IRI. Smirnoff Ice down 18% and got 0.8 share, off 0.2, in same period. A lot of other malternative brands, including Bacardi Silver and Skyy Blue, fading. All malternatives dipped to 2.4 share in 4 weeks of Dec. Malternatives gaining less and less share: up just 0.2 in period, compared to 0.8 or 0.9 earlier in yr, according to Morgan Stanley chart analyzing IRI data.

Many expected Interbrew to move St. Pauli Girl,  which it bought as part of Beck’s deal, away from Barton in US when contract expired. But Barton has “memo of understanding for a long-term agreement” with Interbrew, Barton prexy Bill Hackett told INSIGHTS.  Barton sez St. Pauli depletions up 7.5% in 2002.  Grew to about 2.8 mil cases. Maybe Interbrew has so much on its plate in US it doesn’t want to mess with status quo at this stage, especially since St. Pauli trend much better than Beck’s.

Speaking of Tex, Miller and Coors trends got worse there as yr went on. In fact, both Coors and Miller shipments down double-digits in Nov in 2d biggest US mkt. Miller down 192,000 bbls, 5% in Tex for 11 mos even with 100,000 bbls of malternatives. Its beer brands down 282,000 bbls, 7.7%. Ugh. Meanwhile, Coors down 62,000 bbls, 2.6% thru Nov; down 4.4% for 6 mos. AB has gained 1.6 share to 53.7 last 12 mos, including 377,000-bbl, 9% gain for Bud Light thru Nov.
Didja see front-page of USA Today? Good example of how sex can be used to sell… newspapers! “Sexy beer ad catches heat,” headlined USA Today, making sure to include cleavage shot from controversial new Miller Lite ad. Article included photo of 2 gals mud-wrestlin’ as it described some viewers’ outrage and Miller’s response that ad “tamer” than “reality tv.” Miller mgt must love the attention at long last. Ad even debated on CNN’s Crossfire. If ad helps sales, it will be just in time. Miller Lite down 4.5% for 4 weeks in supers in Dec, sez IRI, 3% for 13 weeks. Thru Oct, Miller Lite down 7.4% in convenience stores, according to ACNielsen. In Tex, Miller Lite down 185,000 bbls, 8.2% thru Nov.

As Miller changed ceo from John Bowlin to Norman Adami, widespread media coverage contained interesting nuggets.  SABMiller ceo Graham Mackay told Financial Times that regarding SAB’s mgt ideas “to some extent [Mr. Bowlin] was having to learn the stuff himself.  I felt I needed a surer hand on the tiller.”  Graham also told Wall St. Jnl: “ I felt that new blood would make a big difference, and in particular somebody steeped in our performance culture and our way of doing things.”  About Norman,  FT wrote: “he has earned a reputation for wringing out earnings growth from the local mature market” in South Africa.   Colleagues describe him as “tuff and gruff,” wrote WSJ, tho FT said he was “softly-spoken.”  Go figure.  Miller has set aside $500 mil budget for mktg and promotion, Norman told WSJ.  Meanwhile, John’s departure “signals a broader housecleaning,” suggested Biz Week Online. 

AB just under $3 bil in total corporate operating income in 2002, up $256 mil, 9.4%. Just 3 yrs earlier, it had made about $2.2 bil, only 4x larger than Miller, then at $539 mil. In 2002, Miller well below $500 mil (final number not yet in) and AB oper income now more than 6x bigger. Another striking number: AB rev per bbl up 4.2% in 4th qtr on strength of Ultra rollout and Bacardi Silver. Up 3.5% for yr. Even if you factor out higher-priced intros, AB rev per bbl up 3.2% in 4th qtr, 2.8% for full yr. But AB pulled back 03 volume guidance a bit; expects to grow 1.5-2%.

Coors sales-to-retailers dropped 3% in 4th qtr and it missed analysts' earnings estimates too.  So stock getting punished today.  Down over $9, 16% to $50 at presstime.  But 1 piece of good news in US; sales-to-retailers bounced back in early 03; up mid-single digits for 5 weeks.  Meanwhile, UK acquisition "proceeding extremely well," said ceo Leo Kiely.  More details in Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS. 

SABMiller sure is movin’ quickly so far in 03.  New Miller prexy will be Norman Adami, 48, previously Chairman and managing director of South African Breweries Ltd.  In South Africa, Mr. Adami played and won at a very different game: building on what is essentially a monopoly position.  There SAB sez it built its mkt share to a  mere 98.3% and grew enterprise value markedly.  In US, Norm inherits Miller’s eroding 19 share, declining profits and much tuffer competition.  He’ll have his work cut out for him.   

John leaves after almost 4 yrs in difficult job.  In 99, Philip Morris brought in John as part of an A team to fix Miller.  While he improved pricing and distrib relations, upped ad spending and reduced inventories,  Miller business trends actually got worse during his tenure.  Miller sold over 4 mil bbls less in 02 than it did in 99 and its earnings lower too.  John did help negotiate deal to sell Miller to SAB.  Since deal closed, his relationship with his new employer under increased pressure, including some tuff remarks about Miller’s corporate culture by SABMiller ceo Graham Mackay in Financial Times, John’s exclusion from a mid-Dec meeting with financial analysts, and weak 4th-qtr trends.