Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Unfazed by FTC’s clear rejection just last month of CSPI’s 2001 complaint that malternatives target underage drinkers, CSPI banged its head against same wall this week with ho-hum announcement that a survey found lotsa teens actually watch television after 9 PM (wow!) when malternative ads run, and high % are aware of brands.  Per usual, no data underage are buying or consuming these products.   CSPI even got one House rep (Engel D-NY) and Conn state atty gen to climb aboard, criticize industry’s voluntary ad regs and rattle sabers about more FTC review, potential state legal action. How many times does FTC have to reject ad restrictions and embrace/praise voluntary self-regulation before antis get it?  

New Michelob ads on NYC bus shelters take sharp aim at hot, hot Stella Artois brand.  Next to pic of Stella bottle ad sez: “Belgium’s ordinary beer.  Overpriced especially for you.  $1.95 a bottle in Belgium.  $8 a bottle in New York.”  Next to pic of Michelob bottle: “Imported from America.  It’s the taste.  Not the trip.”  Reminds of past tuff AB campaigns against Smirnoff Ice, Coors and Sam Adams.

Thru May, consumer price index (CPI) for beer was up 2.2%, just ahead of general inflation of 1.8%. Wine CPI up just 0.5% while spirits CPI up 1.2%. Gap wider over last 12 mos: Beer CPI up 3.1% while wine +0.3%, spirits +2.3%. General inflation was 1.2% May 2001-2002. On-premise beer prices not up as much YTD: +1.3%. Lookin? at producer prices Jan-Jun, malt bev increase (+0.6%) below increase for all finished goods (+1.3%). Canned beer index +1.4%, bottled beer index -0.4%.

“Beck’s North America, under the direction and leadership of John Lennon, will continue to operate as a fully independent stand-alone operation with complete decision-making authority….  Any future decisions concerning BNA and the Beck’s Brand Family will not take place before” 1st qtr of 2003,” Interbrew COO Jerry Fowden wrote.  There will be “significant increase in marketing” in 2d half 2002 and a new ad campaign, plus “several great promotions,” Jerry added.   The “longer term decision regarding integration of Beck’s in the USA” is “now before the courts.”

"Everything is pretty well on projection right now," AB prexy/ceo told Dow Jones in recent interview. "We?re pleased with where we are," even tho Memorial Day "was wet, rainy and cold in most of the country." AB continues up about 20% in China, Pat added, and biz in Mexcio going "very well." For AB to buy Grupo Modelo outright, other shareholders would have to pass on their right of first refusal, Pat told Dow Jones. "He doesn?t see that as a near term possibility," DJ added.

Here are 2d qtr stats so far:  Domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments up just 150,000 bbls, 0.3% in 2d qtr, including 250,000-bbl, 1.4% dropoff in Jun estimated by Matt Hein at Beer Inst.  But taxpaids still up 850,000 bbls, 0.9% for 6 mos.  Miller’s 2d-qtr domestic shipments off nearly 300,000 bbls, 2.5%, despite malternative intros.  Its intl biz up 15% tho.  Miller down slightly for 6 mos.  Boston announced 61,000-bbl, 21% shipments jump in 2d qtr as Sam Light rolled out in many mkts. Up 75,000 bbls, 13.6% Jan-Jun.  More details on each in Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS.

Despite continued Canadian and Canadian Light gains (+31%), Molson USA volume down 4% in 2d qtr, following slight gain in 1st qtr. Still that 4% drop a big improvement from the 21% drop last yr. Molson USA lost $800,000 in qtr but net revs increased $1.5 mil to $26.9, Molson reported.

Upbeat profile of City Brewing, which operates old Heileman flagship plant in La Crosse WI, in Mil Jnl Sentinel.  Recall City was created in late 99, and is run by several ex-Heileman execs, including Randy Smith, Heileman’s genl counsel now City prexy.  It quickly ran into trouble and nearly closed less than a yr later.  Got new life with local money. Now volume growin’ and City has been “cash flow positive since late 4th qtr 2001,” sez mktg/sales director Jon Reynolds.  City was in right place at right time as it scored contract to produce Arizona Iced Tea, then picked up Smirnoff Ice, Mike’s Hard, Captain Morgan, and other brands.  Even brews 4 Pabst brands, and just picked up biz from recently shuttered Minnesota Brewing.  City on tap to produce 1.2-1.5 mil bbls this yr, including about 40,000 bbls of its own brands (up from 25,000 in 2001).   

Grupo Modelo reported 5% volume and 7% rev growth on exports in 2d qtr. That followed 17% volume growth in 1st qtr. So total Modelo export shipments up double-digits in 1st half 2002, tho sales-to-retailers probably up a bit less than that in US. (Barton sales-to-retailers up less than 5% while Gambrinus up double-digits). For 12 mos, exports up 11% said ceo Carlos Fernandez. Elsewhere, NY Times profiled Modelo heiress and vice chairwoman Maria Asuncion Aramburuzabala. She is shaking up "staunchly macho Mexican society? Once unemployed, she now manages a billion dollar family fortune," wrote NY Times. She "helped lead" negotiations to "sell a 50.2% non-controlling stake" to AB, wrote Times.

Beck’s North America sold 743,000 bbls in 2001, up 0.5% from 2000, according to court papers.  Tho INSIGHTS got trend right in earlier estimate, total lots less than we estimated.  Turns out that Beck’s North America off 5% in 2000.  Even while rollout of Beck’s Light reached 48,000 bbls (up 27,000 bbls), flagship brand dropped 66,000 bbls, 10% to 571,000 bbls.  In 2001, flagship brand bounced back, up 4%, but Beck’s Light off 43%.  Beck’s Dark even at about 70,000 bbls in 2001, but took double-digit hit too in 2000.  Here’s total Beck’s North America for last few yrs: 750,000 bbls, in 98, 781,000 bbls in 99, 739,000 bbls in 2000 and 743,000 bbls in 2001.