
Beer Marketer's Insights
Until now, Barry ran Pilsner Urquell USA for SAB. Will take over as Miller’s sr veep strategy and run Bevco (SAB’s Honduras beer and soft drink unit). In his new role, Barry will be in charge of stepped-up efforts behind all the brands that SABMiller now imports into US, including Foster’s, Pilsner Urquell and Presidente.
LUSA’s Big Consolidation Challenge
If Labatt USA is able to someday complete integration of Beck’s (see above), LUSA calculates it would have 775 distribs, more than any other supplier in US, according to court papers. “Probable appropriate range”: 470-540 distribs. To get there, LUSA “must choose best wholesaler in each of 75 Beck’s/LUSA pairs” and “manage consolidation of another 150-200 relationships without Beck’s lever.” That’s “a big consolidation challenge” that “will require an active approach from LUSA,” with “scale, pace and degree of LUSA involvement…all beyond historical precedent.” No doubt.
Just as another wave of new malternative products hits mkt, many suppliers, including Miller and Coors, are concerned about improving performance in consolidated houses and fear loss of focus. "Its like the early years of a shotgun marriage," said consultant Joe Thompson about Miller/Coors consolidations. "They didnt get married because they wanted to, they got married because they had to" (in order to compete more effectively with AB). So suppliers still learning to live with each other in consolidated houses. Yet they also demand more and more from consolidated distribs before approving a deal to insure they get theirs. "Beverage suppliers know they are at the point of maximum leverage the moment before they approve a transfer of ownership," Joe wrote recently. "Most use this leverage to make sure for the first several years moving forward they get their share of emphasis. They have the leverage and they squeeze," Joe added, while noting too some demands "are wrong, expensive and harmful to a wholesaler's overall organization."
As more and more Miller and Coors distribs consolidate (almost 40% of each of their volume sold thru consolidated houses), they do make more money, and often grow rapidly with high-end brands. Yet they also generally dont do as well as projected, according to several sources. But distribs by-and-large aint complainin about consolidation even if some suppliers do. (Interestingly, AB believes Miller/Coors consolidation is a competitive advantage for AB.) "It works," said John Taylor, prexy of JJ Taylor Cos, one of largest distribs who consolidated Miller/Coors etc in Western Fla. And "its the right thing to do" even tho consolidation "is a lot harder than it looks and it takes more time than you think," he added. Consolidated distribs undeniably face numerous transition and organization issues and suppliers are trying to help distribs focus on these. "We have learned from over 100 transitions that some of the consistent challenges to accelerating the successful integration of an acquisition are adequate advanced planning time, blending of cultures and developing the right organization structure and staffing levels," Coors veep Tim Owston said. To minimize the initial drop in performance, Miller and Coors have teams that work with consolidated distribs in transition and have shown some good results. Both Miller and Coors are increasingly interested in finding top mgrs for distribs who can navigate between competing interests of various suppliers.
But in some mkts, underperforming suppliers (including Coors and Miller) also play the blame game: they blame "wholesaler execution" when sales dont meet expectations. For example, in many mkts Coors and Miller flat to down, and high-end brands increasingly drive the bus for consolidated distribs. Big brewers are "not as important as they once were" to a consolidated distrib, one told INSIGHTS. "Thats what really pisses them off. Our business is growing, but theirs isnt." Once-dominant big brewers (at least in terms of "clout in the house") have a difficult time coming to grips with that.
Complicating matters further: global consolidation of brewers. Every time global players switch alliances or do a deal, they rejigger and reconfigure their US distribution networks. When Molson USA switched partners to Coors, that led to over 100 changes, and many more to follow. And tho Interbrew hasnt said what it will do with Becks, many expect that once it can go forward with integration (see below) it will try to get its brands aligned with 1 distrib in many mkts. Each of these changes frustrate still other suppliers who are trying to understand how their brands fortunes wax or wane depending on which brands are coming or going.
Finally, for 1st time in many yrs, some All-Others distribs (those without a top-3 brewers brand), where they still exist, now believe they have a better shot of plucking brands from consolidated houses that can only do so many things well. "We are beginning to see a re-energizing of the All Other third wholesaler in the market," Calif consultant Roger Hanney wrote (Calif a recent Miller/Coors hotbed). "All Other wholesalers with vision are now licking their chops at the prospects of snagging some of the good brands that will inevitably become available," Roger added. This has happened recently in a couple of notable cases in Calif and NY, but whether All-Others distrib has scale to successfully compete with a significant brand remains to be seen. (To be continued)
The courtroom debate over commercial harm underscored battle for focus between global giants attempting to coexist in same co. FEMSA CFO Sergio Saenz said that "if Becks brands are added to LUSA on terms we were told they would be added," it would cause immediate and irreparable harm to FEMSA because of "loss of focus" and "deprioritization." Labatt USA has 21 brands, Sergio noted, more even than AB. Interbrew only planned to add 20 salesmen when it brought in Becks, Sergio pointed out, while adding 100 distribs. So there would be "same amount of time, more brands, more programs and more wholesalers." At earlier hearing, FEMSA had said that in 32 of 37 key mkts, FEMSA brands would be lower priority or off priority list entirely (based on LUSAs top 4 brands by volume). Just before hearing, FEMSA attys got long-range plan for LUSA, presented in May to Interbrew, which showed plans to "focus on a few key brands" and "reduce sales force." Under the plan, no more than 3 or 4 brands would be priorities in a given mkt. FEMSA asked "why Dos Equis keeps getting bumped off the list?" Noted too that LUSA had "missed every projection in last 3 years" and that Carlsberg, Lowenbrau and Stella Artois had collectively brought losses of $8 mil to Labatt USA.
Interbrew atty argued that FEMSAs complaint "an effort to get back control" of its brands, and "block Interbrews strategy of making Becks a global flagship." Said that FEMSA execs had acknowledged that if handled correctly, Becks integration could be good for Labatt USA and good for FEMSA brands. The brand prioritization document was a "preliminary cut," and LUSA is "still in midst" of its evaluation. And long-range plan a "draft," a "work still-in-progress." Interbrew had originally contemplated requiring FEMSA to pay some cash or reduce its share in Labatt USA because of increased profits post-Becks; it now sez it added Beck's without any payment from FEMSA. Interbrew showed that FEMSA brands grew at compound annual rate (CAGR) of 13% in Labatt USA 98-01 while on up-and-down path in Mexico. Then too, FEMSA brands were slated to receive over $20 per bbl of US ad spending in 2002 (compared to $18 per bbl for Labatts). And Interbrew had plans for 9% annual growth for FEMSA brands over next several yrs with "no reduction in marketing" or promotion. A brand ranking on a prioritization list "does not prove loss of focus," argued Interbrew atty. In that same brand-ranking list, he pointed out, Tecate #1 LUSA brand in 11 mkts before Becks integration, would still be #1 in 10 after.
Judge granted injunction because Interbrew denied FEMSA its "bargained-for" rights as minority shareholder. Specifically, ruled Interbrew subsidiaries Becks and LUSA agreed to combine bizzes and that triggered clause (in FEMSA agreement with LUSA) that gives FEMSA veto power to stop integration. Interbrew denied there was any such agreement between Beck's and LUSA. Said its all Interbrew-owned. Judge didn't buy it; relied entirely on 2002 Alcatel decision in 2d Circuit Court of Appeals (same court to which Interbrew now appeals). That case said "denial of bargained-for minority rights" in-and-of itself constituted "irreparable harm." Judge said he would not have granted injunction based on thesis that FEMSA suffered "irreparable" commercial harm, not compensable by $$ damages.
At dramatic US Dist Court hearing on May 23, Fed judge ruled Interbrew breached its agreement with partner FEMSA when it tried to integrate Becks into jointly-owned Labatt USA over FEMSA objections (Interbrew owns 70% of LUSA, FEMSA 30%). This violation of FEMSA rights as minority partner enuf for judge to find "irreparable harm" to FEMSA, the basis for granting tuff-to-get preliminary injunction. Interbrew immediately announced it would appeal to US Court of Appeals. But ruling stopped LUSA integration of Becks in its tracks. Process put on hold for probably at least 3 months (unless the 2 sides settle earlier). Right in the middle of peak selling-season. So once again global ambitions of Interbrew ran into legal roadblock. Recall that Interbrew had to sell much of Bass in UK (to Coors) after UK regulators put kabosh on that deal as anti-competitive. In this case, Interbrew plans to make Becks its "global flagship," but those plans are blocked in US until this legal mess gets untangled. And that matters: Becks is currently sluggish in US. Following flattish 2001, German imports (mostly Becks) down 3.5% in 1st qtr. Meanwhile, Interbrew ascribed an unbelievable $600 mil (or 38% of $1.6 bil it paid) to value of Becks in US (about 11.7 mil cases -- approx $51 per case), according to testimony at this hearing.
The lawsuit is very expensive for both sides of this very unhappy partnership. Each side had at least 5 attorneys from blue-chip firms Sullivan Cromwell (Interbrew) and Boies, Schiller & Flexner (FEMSA) at hearing. Not to mention hundreds of hours of preparations, experts, and appeals process. And the meter is running. The parties have a 99-year agreement, but FEMSA seems to prefer divorce.
Shipments glass looks half-full or half-empty, depending on your point of view. Taxpaid shipments by US brewers in Apr up half-mil bbls, 3.4%, estimates Matt Hein of Beer Inst. That?s 6th-straight mo that shipments up. Hadn?t been such a string of gains since 1986, Matt notes. YTD taxpaid shipments up 1.3 mil bbls, 2.2%. That?s the half-full view. But gotta note Apr 2001 was down 600,000 bbls, 4%, so Apr 2002 was an easy mo to score a gain, especially with 1 more shipping day. Apr 2002 shipments still 100,000 bbls lower than Apr 99 and Apr 2000. What?s more, lotsa malternative volume in pipeline in 2002 for first time; hadda be big chunk of that 1.3-mil-bbl gain. Meanwhile, import shipments up just 67,000 bbls, 3.5% in Mar, for 1st-qtr gain of 300,000 bbls, 6%. That followed 12% import gain in 4th qtr 2002. Still, despite import slowdown and not-so-great beer trend Jan-Apr, malt bev industry?s 12-mo pace improving: up about 2.5 mil bbls, 1.3%.
Mexican shipments continued to roll in advance of Corona price increase: up 386,000 bbls, 19.5% thru Mar. That was 90,000 bbls more than entire import gain. So Mexican brands grabbed fully 45 share of import shipments in 1st qtr, up from 40 share 1st qtr 2001. Dutch shipments up 107,000 bbls, 9% and built a bit of share too, to 25. So 7 of every 10 import beers came from Mexico or Netherlands in 1st qtr. Thats up more than 10 share since 98. Irish shipments up 10,000 bbls, 6%, but that followed big 39% decline last yr. Canadian shipments dropped sharply in 1st qtr: down nearly 200,000 bbls, 20%, in large part as Diageo shifted Smirnoff Ice production to US plants. UK shipments down 41,000 bbls, 14%. German shipments down 8,000 bbls, 3.5%.
Key concern for SABMiller: US game is won and lost on mktg front first and foremost, but thats not SABs key strength and hasnt been Millers in recent yrs either. SAB ceo Graham Mackay summarized its "competencies" at end of recent speech: "operation skills, brand portfolio development, low cost production, M&A track record and integration abilities, margin improvement and strong cash generation." Graham did not emphasize its skill as a marketer. In conference call after deal, Miller ceo John Bowlin said Miller 2002 mktg programs "right on" and pointed to signs of progress tho he did acknowledge: "not every month, not every quarter as bright as the last one." Miller is spending at competitive levels, according to John. "I dont think we could have said that until this year," he added. Miller has bolstered core brand spending by $100 mil last 3 yrs and will spend "incremental" approx $100 mil on flavored malt bevs too. Graham too said mktg "in the right direction." Miller needs this mktg improvement to reverse longterm declines of Miller brand equities. Compared to 1991, Miller Lite down 2 mil bbls, Gen Draft down 1 mil bbls, High Life down 100,000 bbls (but price repositioned) and Mil Best down 4.3 mil bbls (it was Millers 2d biggest brand then). Each of these brands down even more from their respective peaks. While Miller has shown shipments improvement last 2 qtrs its a long road back. That was illustrated yet again in recent PM filing: Miller sales-to-retailers actually dropped 2.6% in 1st qtr, tho shipments up 1.6%. Miller Lite and Miller Genuine Draft STRs were both down.
SABMiller apparently has big plans for Pilsner Urquell. Pilsner Urquell "has potential to make significant inroads in import segment," PM ceo Louis Camilleri told analysts. And when asked if greater efforts on Pilsner would cannibalize existing Miller brands, Miller ceo John Bowlin said it "may cannibalize other imports and thats ok." SAB ceo Graham Mackay pointed out that Pilsner grew 50% in US last yr (of all Czech beers, vast majority is Pilsner Urquell, reached 123,000 bbls in US last yr, up 45%). He also pointed to cross-selling opportunities internationally with Miller brands. SAB is 1 of top 3 brewers in 30 countries around world. Asked about short-term disruption with distribs, PM ceo Louis said: "I would think distributors will be enchanted. I dont expect any hiccups." Asked if Miller brands will get greater focus in consolidated distribs? "That is clearly the intention." But both Miller and Coors "benefit" in shared houses.
The Big Get Bigger (Mostly); 8 of Top-10 Intl Brewers Up in 2001; 6 Sold Over 50 Mil Bbls
Only 2 top-10 intl brewers failed to build volume in 2001: Miller down and Brazilian brewer Ambev even. Each of others scored gains thru "organic growth" and/or acquisitions. Gotta keep in mind that each brewer reports volume differently. Some include licensed production (beer produced by foreign partners), some include share of volume sold by intl partners, so some bbls can be counted twice. Our figures show that the top-10 brewers each sold over 27 mil bbls in 2001. The biggest, AB, sold over 107 mil bbls. The big gainers, mostly thru new acquisitions/joint ventures: Interbrew, South African Breweries (SAB) and Carlsberg. The Belgian brewer Interbrew included 3 different sets of numbers in its annual report. We?re using a series from Interbrew?s letter to shareholders which excludes Bass UK volume sold to Coors. That figure was 62.3 mil bbls, up 8 mil bbls, 15.5%. SAB gained 7 mil bbls, 13.4% and sold just under 60 mil bbls. That?s before adding 40 mil+ from Miller. About 5 mil bbls of SAB?s gain from acquisitions. Carlsberg?s volume jumped over 70%, from 34 mil to 58 mil bbls, including recent acquisitions in Europe and Russia. Apples-to-apples volume increased 15%, Carlsberg reported. Heineken?s "Group Volume" was up 6.5 mil bbls, 8% to 69 mil bbls. That includes all licensed sales and sales by "consolidated companies" but excludes Heineken?s "affiliated companies" in South America, Kaiser and Quilmes. Most of Heineken?s gain came from its acquisition in Germany. Compared to these gains, AB?s 1.7-mil-bbl, 1.5% gain in worldwide volume (US, licensed, exports and beer it brewed in its plants China and UK, but excluding any piece of Modelo), looks modest. On the other hand, AB?s profits and margins are much more robust than its faster-growing competitors?.
AB?s lead over its nearest competitor, still about 50 mil bbls as recently as 97 (over Miller), dropped to about 38 mil (over Heineken) in 2001. Following closing of
SABMiller deal, gap will be only 5 mil bbls. Another way of looking at it: in 97, AB only brewer that sold over 50 mil bbls. Six brewers did that last year. Since 97, AB expanded its beer biz by about 10 mil bbls. During same period, Heineken, Interbrew and Carlsberg each expanded by about 30 mil bbls, SAB by about 24 mil bbls (before Miller). Miller was only top-10 brewer down in 2001 and only one that sold less in 2001 than in 1997. This could be key insight to why PM did deal. In fact, PM ceo Louis Camilleri told analysts: "Miller needed to increase global share and presence in order to remain competitive." Ambev sold about the same 53 mil bbls in 2001 as in 2000 and was also about same size that Antarctica and Brahma were in 1996 before they joined to create Ambev. Scottish & Newcastle doubled its business since 97 with acquisition of Danone. Modelo gained in mid-high single-digits each of last 5 years and gained 30% since 97. Number 10 Ashai up in 4 of these 5 years. With its December acquisition of Carling in UK, Coors jumped ahead of Asahi to join top-10 at approximately 32.1 mil bbls.
Global brewing consolidation game heated up lots more as PM and SAB struck deal to combine #4 worldwide brewer SAB and #7 brewer Miller and create a new #2 brewer called SABMiller. Deal valued at $5.6 bil and easily eclipsed several recent deals (Interbrew for Becks, Coors for Carling, Scottish & Newcastle for Hartwall) in the $1.5-2 bil range. And its clearly intended as only the beginning. SAB ceo Graham Mackay said deal "represents a new chapter in our development positioning us to be a major participant in the ongoing consolidation of the global brewing industry . We will seek to fill in gaps in our market and will look at larger transactions as they become available." Philip Morris will get 36% stake in combined entity and PM ceo Louis Camilleri said that SABMiller will be at "forefront" of consolidating brewing industry and will have "financial wherewithal" to grow thru acquisition and "potentially become" worlds leading brewer. And contrary to expectations that PM would get out of beer biz, it has option and expressed potential interest in prospect of taking bigger stake in 2.5 yrs. Can go up to 40% under present agreement. Deal expected to close in July.
What will SABMiller look like? SABMiller sold 102 mil bbls in yr thru Mar 31 2002, 5 mil bbls behind AB (including licensed volume for both). Combo had pro-forma revs of $9.3 bil and EBITDA of $1.5 bil. But both Miller and SAB pretax earnings declined in latest year (SABs largely because of South African currency weakness). Miller prexy John Bowlin stays on: "responsible for SABMillers business in the US and Central America." "I believe John will be there for quite awhile," Louis Camilleri told analysts, tho he didnt divulge details of any agreement on that front. "Were certainly not looking at any replacement of the management team," Graham Mackay added. "We think theyve done a lot of good things and results will start to show over the next few years." New co will have London hq, with US subsidiary hq in Milwaukee and John reporting to Graham.
What is structure of transaction? PM gets 430 million shares of SABMiller, a 36% stake in combined co (stock currently worth $3.6 bil), have 3 seats on board (out of 13) and voting rights just under 25%. Interestingly, while SAB said it "will acquire 100% of Miller Brewing Company," PM "announced an agreement to merge." PM said deal will be neutral to its earnings for next 2 yrs, but it will have 1-time gain in 3d qtr of a mere $3 bil pre-tax, $2 bil after-tax. Because of way transaction structured, PM minimizes taxes, and SAB minimizes cash outlay. SAB sez it expects deal to add to earnings in yr 1 and brings cost savings of $50 mil per yr starting in yr 3. PM has agreed not to sell any shares for 3 yrs and not to buy any more for at least 2.5 yrs, "subject to certain exceptions." Meanwhile, SABMiller has plans to float about 170 mil more shares (worth $1.4 bil) to fund future acquisitions.
PM ceo Louis Camilleri emphasized PM has "flexibility" to either buy more of SABMiller and "form a 3d leg" (to go with food and tobacco) if it likes where SABMiller headed in global beer game, or reduce its stake. SAB chairman Graham Mackay said talks with PM about future "had nothing to do with withdrawal [of stake], but much more with keeping their position and supporting it, in fact even improving it in the longer term." Deal "gives us scale and the benefits of a hard currency, large profit pool in which we will now operate without having to pay a high price for it," added Graham.