Import shipments down 130,000 bbls, 8.5% in Jan. That’s worst % drop since Sep 99, pointed out Matt Hein of Beer Inst.  And it’s also 2d down mo in a row, following 2% drop in Dec. Just more evidence that beer biz soft recently; domestic taxpaid shipments down 2.7% in Jan too.  With weather so harsh in big import mkts in Feb, and on-premise biz particularly hard hit, could take some time to fully dig out of this hole.  

This time it’s superpremium ice cream merger that Federal Trade Commission freezin’ out. “The market for superpremium ice cream is already highly concentrated and this deal will reduce the number of significant competitors from three to two,” said FTC’s director of competition. FTC said it would file suit to block $2.8 bil deal to combine Dreyer’s and Nestle Holdings, which together sell about 60% of superpremium ice cream. Interesting that FTC blocked on basis of segment—the high end. FTC press release also said the merger would “likely lead to…less product variety and higher prices.” Would the FTC still reject combining an ailing #2 and #3 competitor when #1 dominant as it did in babyfoods?

While media gave plenty of attention to dubious claims from CASA that underage drink 20% of all alc bevs, didn’t give much play to latest (and 5th out of 5) national survey that showed % of teens who drink is dropping. Partnership for Drug-Free America found in 2002 that 36% of students in grades 7-12 drank in previous month, down from 47% 5 yrs earlier.  Percent who were so-called “binge drinkers” down too.

That’s according to 2001-02 survey of up to 10,000 adults by Scarborough Research. Clarification: Scarborough asks what brands consumers drank in last 30 days. Doesn’t measure volume, and consumers can name more than one brand. So brand can be most “popular” but not actually outsell others, as a source suggests about Corona in DC (see Express #6). Yuengling barely edged past Coors Light as most popular brand in biggest city in home state; 16.3% said they drank Yuengling vs 16.2% for Coors Light. Interestingly, Coors Light had had nearly 6-pt lead in 2000-01 surveys. Bud #3 in City of Brotherly Love; 10.5% said they drank it (more than 2X Bud Light figure). Heineken and Corona neck-and-neck at 8.5-8.6%. Then came “other import,” Lite, Bud Light, and Sam Adams, each between 5.8% and 4.6%.

Another deal logjam broke recently as Coors distrib Maloof & Co (owned by Maloof family which also owns NBA’s Sacramento Kings, Vegas, casinos etc) agreed to buy 4.2-mil-case Miller distrib New Mexico Bev Co (owned by Tom Bonafair).  Deal hasn’t closed yet, but it’s been announced and approved.  New entity will be close to 9 mil cases, continuing Southwestern major metro trend: Dallas, Orange County, Albuquerque and Phoenix have all consolidated Miller/Coors distribs in last 2 yrs. 

Beer volume down 1.6% in C-stores for 8 wks thru Feb 15, according to ACNielsen.  Regular beer (including imports) down 3.5%; even light beer biz off 0.3%.  C-store volume (excluding malternatives) still up 0.8% for 52 weeks, but hasn’t scored an up month since Sep 02.  Malternative volume up 12.3% for 8 wks thru Feb 15, had 2.6 share.  For 52 wks, still ahead +29%, at 2.8 share.

Total beer biz remained up modestly in supers; volume increased 1.4% in supers thru Feb 23 (down 4.4% for 4 weeks), according to IRI. And prices held: avg price paid for a case of beer up 3%. A surprise: Corona down 1% yr-to-date, going against tuff comps. Import segment up just 4% and 0.3 share. AB also up 4%; gained 1.1 share. Most of gain fueled by Ultra intro; at 1.4 share YTD. Malternatives up 7%, gained 0.1 share, but Smirnoff Ice down 26%. Miller continued to lose share; down 2.7% and 0.9 share YTD, including 2% Miller Lite decline. Coors Light up 2% and held share, but Coors Brewing up just 0.6% and lost 0.1 share.

Well it ain’t Tex or Calif, but Coors did have strong #s in some small-and-medium sized states.  Up 7000 bbls, 11% in RI and gained 1 full share to 10 there in 03 (up 8% in Ia—see last issue).  AB, affected by strike, off 5000 bbls, 1% in RI, including 8% drop in 2d half.   Share down 0.6 to 47.2.   And Miller down 7%, share off 0.9 to 11.4.  All Others up only slightly, but gained half share to 28.9. 

So wrote Bear Stearns analyst Carlos Laboy after mtg with Interbrew cfo in mid-Feb: “We left with the impression that the relationship could take on a more constructive tone.”  New Interbrew ceo John Brock had “developed a relationship with FEMSA” when at Cadbury which bought FEMSA water brand.  That could “serve as a springboard to better relationships.”  Interbrew acknowledged in past it had “viewed FEMSA predominantly as a takeover candidate,” he wrote.  Now Carlos believes the 2 cos “can form a ‘win-win’ arrangement” however lawsuit ends.    

"Good progress" for Molson in US in '02 included 37% gain for Molson Canadian with twice as much distribution and slower rates of decline for Golden (from 21% to 12%) and Ice (from 20% to 10%,) Molson ceo Dan O'Neill told investors and analysts this morning. Net-net: in '02, Molson down less than 1% in US. Molson tripled sales force in northeast in '02 and got about 75% of Molson biz into Coors houses, Dan said, up from about 56% in '01. Molson biz up 1.6% in Coors houses, Dan noted, down 2.2% in non-Coors houses. Key '03 initiatives: double on-premise distribution from '01 base, grow "high potential expansion markets" like FL and CA, continue "defensive maintenance strategy" on Ice and Golden, grow Canadian 32%, grow total volume 3%.