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Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

08/12/2002

Who Won July 4th in Supers? AB Accelerated Share Gains; Miller, Coors Lost More Share

AB’s recent outperformance underscored in latest supermkt data. AB up 8.2% for 4 weeks thru Jul 14 in supers, while total beer biz up 5.5%, according to IRI. So beer sales in supers continue growing faster than in other channels. AB the big winner over Jul 4th holiday. Gained 1.1 share of volume in period compared to its 0.5 share gain yr-to-date. Miller volume up 1.5%, but it lost 0.9 share for 4 weeks, 0.6 share YTD. Coors also lost 0.2 share over Jul 4th period even tho volume up 3.8%. Down 0.1 share YTD. While Miller and Coors relative performance weakened in most recent 4 weeks, Pabst improved: volume up 1% and share down 0.2, compared to 0.4 share loss and 3% volume drop YTD. Interestingly, import share growth slowed in most recent period: up just 0.2 share for 4 weeks (0.3 YTD). Other big gainers: malternatives. Got nearly 4 share for 4 weeks, up 0.7.

Bud Light drove all of AB share growth and more: Over July 4th, up 14% and gained 1.3 share for 4 weeks. More than half of Miller share losses in Lite (0.2) and Gen Draft (0.3); Coors Light held share for 4 weeks; up 0.1 YTD. Coors lost 0.1 share each on Coors Original and Zima for 4 weeks. Modelo brands held share but Corona Extra volume only up 3% for 4 weeks. And while malternative segment up 30% for 4 weeks, check out these brand trends: Smirnoff Ice up just 8%, Mike’s Hard Lemonade down 9%. Meanwhile, SKYY Blue sold slightly more than Bacardi Silver for 4 weeks (each had 0.4 share); no other new malternative intro got 0.1 share for 4 weeks.

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08/12/2002

AB Only Gainer Among Top-4 for Qtr, 6 & 12 Mos; Miller, Coors Losing Share; Industry OK

While overall malt bev biz in US trending up 1%+ so far this yr, AB continues to outperform major domestic competitors. Total US shipments up estimated 1% in 2d qtr, 1.5% for 6 mos. A lot of that increase: malternatives, especially Smirnoff Ice and new-brand rollouts. Traditional beer biz barely up so far this yr even as imports gained estimated 6-7% (up 7% thru May). For 12 mos, US biz still up less than 1%; imports up 5.5%.

AB was sole gainer among top-4 brewers in 2d qtr and only major brewer ahead for 6 mos and 12 mos. Up 550,000 bbls, 2.1% Apr-Jun. Picked up 900,000 bbls, 1.8% for 6 mos. AB reported sales-to-retailers (STRs) up 2% YTD thru 1st week of July to tease out effect of Jul 4 "timing differences" this yr vs last yr. (Buy-in was earlier last yr.) For 12 mos, AB up 1.3 mil bbls, 1.3% and up 0.3 share to 48.8. Miller trend reversed in 2d qtr: shipments down estimated 260,000 bbls, 2.3%, following 150,000-bbl gain in 1st qtr, flat 4th qtr 2001. For 6 mos, Miller off 0.5% despite rollout of 3 malternatives; its beer biz down estimated 2-3% during period. PM didn’t report Miller’s STR trend in 2d qtr, but STRs down 2.6% in 1st qtr. For 12 mos, Miller lost about a half-share to 19.5.

Coors’ US/export biz nothin’ to shout about either. Down slightly Jan-Jun. And Coors STR trend softened in 2d qtr: it was flat (adjusting for Jul 4) following 1.4% gain in 1st qtr. Coors shipments off 190,000 bbls, 0.8% for 12 mos; share off 0.2. Dipped back below 11. Since string of 4 qtrs when Coors averaged 6% growth (4th qtr 99 thru 3d qtr 2000), Coors down 200,000 bbls, 0.5%, over last 7 qtrs. (Coors worldwide volume, including UK acquisition, up 3.9 mil bbls, 33% Jan-Jun to 15.4 mil bbls; Carling biz growin’ in UK.) Pabst dropoff in 2d qtr similar to 1st qtr: off estimated 3% so far this yr. "All Other" domestic brewers down slightly in 2d qtr, up about 2% for 6 mos. That includes Boston gain (75,000 bbls for 6 mos) and malternative production at Diageo’s Pennsy plant. Import growth slowed to mid single-digits in 1st half, we estimate, as Corona price increase kicked in. Modelo 2d-qtr exports from Mexico up about 5%; FEMSA exports up about 6%. Modelo gained double-digits for 6 mos vs 7% for FEMSA.

 

 

Shipments(000)

Chg Shipments(000)

Chg Shipments
(000)

Chg
2d 02 2d 01 bbls % 6mos 02 6mos 01 bbls % 12mos 02 %
AB 26,850 26,300 550 2.1 51,700 50,800 900 1.8 101,325 1.3
Miller 11,190 11,450 -260 -2.3 20,915 21,025 -110 -0.5 40,453 -1.7
Coors 6,371 6,413 -42 -0.7 11,501 11,519 -18 -0.2 22,725 -0.8
Pabst 2,490 2,600 -110 -4.2 4,640 4,800 -160 -3.3 9,190 -6.6
Other Dom 3,679 3,712 -33 -0.9 6,904 6,761 143 2.1 12,362 0.7
Dom Total 50,360 50,265 95 0.2 95,250 94,515 735 0.8 185,235 0.2
Imports 6,700 6,283 417 6.6 11,974 11,262 712 6.3 22,603 5.5
Total 57,060 56,548 512 0.9 107,224 105,777 1,447 1.4 207,838 0.7
(Exports) 1,200 1,240 -40 -3.2 2,150 2,235 -85 -3.8 4,465 -3.4
US Total 55,860 55,308 552 1.0 105,074 103,542 1,532 1.5 203,373 0.8
Note: Brewer figures are shipments in US plus taxfree/exports. Coors excludes UK biz.
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07/21/2002

June Taxpaid Shipments Off 1%; 2d Qtr About Flat; YTD Up Nearly 1%

Jun taxpaid shipments off 250,000 bbls, 1.4% estimates Matt Hein of Beer Inst. That?s not too bad, considering 1 less selling day and way Jul 4 fell this yr: more buy-in in June last yr. On other hand, that was 2d down mo in row following 6 straight gains. Also means 2d-qtr domestic taxpaid shipments up just 150,000 bbls, 0.3% despite malternative intros and pipeline-fills. For 6 mos, domestic taxpaid shipments up 850,000 bbls, 0.9%, a far better pace than 1st half last yr, when taxpaid shipments down 450,000 bbls. Initial reaction on Street saw glass half-empty; AB stock down 6% on day this modest 1 mo industry drop became public. It rallied back some since. Recall that AB ceo Pat Stokes had told Dow Jones in late Jun that "everything is pretty well on projection."

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