Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Two smaller Bud operations in Missouri merged and then bought out 3d guy. The new combined entity, Missouri Eagle, will sell about 4.2 mil cases or 10% of AB biz in its home state. Charles Brown Bev (1.6 mil cases in 2 locations) and Marquart Bev Co (about 600,000 cases) merged to form new co and purchased Larry Hickey Dist, almost 2 mil cases. All together, Missouri Eagle will now cover huge swath of territory in southern Mo. In 02, AB shipped 40 mil cases in Mo, up 2%, and its share held even at 65.6.
Still early but AB share gains accelerated and Miller share losses deepened in supers for 4 weeks thru Jan 26, according to IRI data. Coors held share, a better performance than in several recent 4-week periods. And Pabst lost 0.7 share for 4 weeks, worse than its recent trends. Imports came out of chute fast, up 0.6 share. Total avg beer prices up 3% in supers for 4 weeks with AB and Miller each up 3%+, Coors up just 0.9%. More details when there's more data.

Good news about moderate drinking keeps flowin’.  Latest: review of 35 studies found those who drank 2-3 per day had 28% reduced risk for most common form of stroke.

02/05/2003

An S&N Lesson

Brit brewer Scottish & Newcastle just announced it’s taking a $25-mil charge that will flatten its beer profits in UK. Why? S&N’s big bid to “reduce costs and streamline” its distribution system (sound familiar?) failed miserably. So now it’s running two separate systems. And this is in a 2-tier world! Perhaps a 3-tier system, with independent wholesalers, would make UK beer biz more efficient.
Pyramid beer volume up 5300 bbls, 5.3% to 117,000 bbls in 2002. That was its best bbls trend since micro heyday in 96. Improved financial performance too: doubled EBITDA to $2.5 mil and had net income of $252,000 compared to $1.6 mil loss in 01. Still lost $227,000 on oper line; but even that narrowed from $1.6 mil loss last yr.
For full yr, Redhook shipments up 3,000 bbls, 1.3% to 226,000 bbls, but a 2% drop in 4th qtr ended 13-qtr streak of volume gains. Orders for Jan 2003 down 8% too, it said. Redhook also continued to lose money: $1.1 mil in 02 even as it cut ad spending. That compared to $1.3 mil loss in 01. Redhook still has $7 mil cash. Interestingly, Redhook announced agreement to contract brew rival Widmer's Hefeweizen in east. Anheuser Busch owns a stake in each of Redhook and Widmer; both are in top 10 micros. CEO Paul Shipman said: despite "positive" pricing trends in greater beer biz, microbrewer segment still "overcapacitized" and "earlier on in the consolidation process, so it's a bit of a free-for-all." Meanwhile, Paul predicts imports will have "a hard time with pricing" in '03 because of "weakness of the US dollar," and sees the "glimmers of the beginning of a shakeout" in micro biz.

“Where we do not have Modelo, east of the Mississippi, where we have brands like Tsingtao, Peroni and St Pauli Girl, we will try to expand that national portfolio.”  That’s what Constellation CEO Richard Sands told Biz Week Online.  Added: “Typically, such expansion doesn’t take the form of acquisitions – rather, we develop new agency relationships.”  Didn’t suggest any possible new partners. 

Beer industry volume was down then up and back down again. But when it was all over, volume in supers off 0.4% for 13 weeks thru Dec 29, according to IRI. That softness pulled back full-yr growth rate to 2.2%. Pricing held up very well for most part. While AB volume up 1.5% in this tuff environment, Miller and Coors down 3% and 1.5% respectively in supers in 4th qtr. To get idea of just how tuff 4th qtr was, look at these import trends: Modelo brands up just 1%, Labatt USA down 3%, and Guinness Bass Import Co down 5%. Only Heineken stayed solid among top importers in supers: up 8% in 4th qtr.
Good news: Molson USA held volume in 2002 (at about 800,000 bbls) following 3 straight double-digit declines; Molson Canadian brands up 34% in most recent qtr. Bad news: Molson brands only half their 97 volume.

State legislator just proposed doubling beer excise tax to a dime-per- drink, earmarked to offset alcohol-related medical costs.  That equalizes beer tax with wine/spirits tax.  Doc-legislator also took oppty to attack beer: “Beer-related alcohol abuse is the major creator of problems,” he told NM papers.  Added: “When people wind up in the trauma room it’s not from drinking expensive vintage wine, it’s from drinking lots of beer.”  Ain’t just NM.  Oreg prevention group is floating dime-a-beer tax too.