Yikes! SABMiller stock down to 385 pence today.  Had hit high of 600 last Jul  on pre-deal excitement. But drifted down by more than 1/3 since, including almost 15% drop in Jan. Credit Suisse First Boston lowered its rating to neutral.  Used to think fair value was 600, but lowered that to 430.  “We are reducing our 2004 and 2005 estimates to reflect our expectations of a slower turnaround story at Miller,” wrote CFSB analysts.  “The turnaround story has slipped by at least 12 months and is unlikely to be visible in fiscal 2004.”  While shares “cheap… valuation gap is unlikely to narrow until Miller starts to perform.” 

Coors' twins spots gettin' plenty of attention too and so far managed to avoid much of media flak aimed at Miller spots.  In fact, NY Sunday Times deemed "Love Songs" "a cultural phenomenon," "the standard against which all other beer ads are measured," and even "a primer on the art of marketing to the Maxim generation."  Focused on music as key to success: lyrics don't mention Coors Light so "people respond to it as a song, not an ad."  Coors gettin' props from alternative press too: weekly Denver Westword ran positive feature on mktg equation of loud music, stars that boost Coors "credibility."  Despite continued buzz and distrib enthusiasm, Coors Light trends since ads broke nuthin’ to shout about.

Blasted by ad critics in Ad Age (AA chief editor bashed it too) and Adweek, debated on talk shows from Limbaugh to Crossfire, Miller’s still gotta be lovin’ Catfight craze.  (Sign of buzz: one of the models hadda close down her website due to heavy traffic.)  INSIGHTS’ spot-check of Miller distribs found responses from “best thing they’ve done in 15 years” and “my sales force hasn’t been so pumped in years” to “It’s offensive and tasteless.”  Milwaukee Jnl-Sentinel reported consumer emails to Miller runnin’ 60% positive and “most of the complaints coming from women over 40,” not known as a huge beer drinkers.  But some of those women gotta be beer buyers at supers.  Miller execs said: “We’re looking at some potential follow-ups” (duh) and “I don’t think [the ad] centers around sexuality, necessarily” (huh?).  Uncut version of ad at: www.ifilm.com.

Tons of media coverage of beer ads on top of typical Super Bowl hype. Miller Lite stole some of AB’s thunder with Catfight ruckus (reenacted in San Diego), but when dust settled AB won USA Today’s Ad Meter survey for 5th straight yr and placed 4 ads in top-5 in poll. Advertising Age rated Clydesdale ad tops too: 1 of just 2 spots it gave 4 stars. “Only Budweiser has the equity to make this kind of beer-less Event Advertising a brand builder,” it wrote. Tho AB came out on top again, pundit reaction to some of its ads, and Super Bowl ads in general, more critical than in past.

An alert reader pointed out another beer biz guy on that august list at Augusta National: AB distrib John Dobbs, who has AB brands in New Mex, but is in other bizzes too. Then another told us that Dave Ingram, Coors distrib in Memphis as well as owner of other bizzes, also a member.

So suggests atty Drew Jaglom, reacting to buzz that NY might allow wine sales in supermkts and that beer distribs will deliver as “agents” for wine/liquor distribs.  Here’s the catch, according to Drew: currently NY law not only allows in-state wineries to sell direct to consumers, but also to sell direct to retailers.   If supers open to wine sales, nothin’ to stop out-of-state wineries from seeking same right (just like they have in so-far successful NY direct ship case), especially “for major customers like the chain supermarkets.”  Creates lotsa “incentive to eliminate a distribution tier,” sez Drew, especially for folks like Costco which already sells 5% of all wine in US.  And if wineries can sell direct to retail chains…

For full yr, imports up 7% and climbed to almost 12% of volume in supers, according to IRI.   But slowed to just 2% gain in 4^th qtr, with several leading brands down.  Among top 5 import brands, Heineken, Tecate and Corona Light all jumped 14-15% for full yr, while segment leader Corona Extra slowed to 6% growth (and down 1% for 13 weeks) and Labatt Blue up just 3% (down 3% in 4^th qtr).  Foster’s flat for yr (down 7% for 13 weeks).  Beck’s and Pacifico each up mid-single digits while Amstel Light and Labatt Blue Light each up 20%+ again in supers.  

Can’t remember last time big brewer lost rights to sell beer in any state, but that may happen after Mass Ct of Appeals upheld 14-day suspension of Miller recently. Alc Bev Comm said Miller broke state laws by 1) giving different credit terms to different distribs, and 2) selling beer direct to ship chandler that only had retail license. Court agreed with ABC. Miller can appeal one more level.

While imports rocked in Nov, domestic taxpaid shipments dropped 500,000 bbls in Nov-Dec, according to estimates by Beer Inst’s Matt Hein. So for 4th qtr, domestic taxpaids down 100,000 bbls, 0.2%. Nov-Dec dropoffs reduced full yr gain to 1.25 mil bbls, 0.7% too.  While AB shipments up 500,000 bbls, 2.2% in 4th qtr,  looks like Miller had to be down about 4% in 4th qtr and Coors didn’t have great qtr either. 

Still some steam left in trading up trend apparently.  Imports got strong 252,000-bbl, 17% gain in Nov, going against just a slight gain in Nov last yr.  That pushed import gain closer to 7% for 11 mos.   Total imports up 1.35 mil bbls, 6.7% yr-to-date.  But Mexican shipments up a whoppin’ 1 mil bbls, 12%, including 34% gain in Nov.   And Dutch shipments up 538,000 bbls, 11%.  Those 2 countries hit 68.6 share of imports, up more than 3 share.  All other imports down 206,000 bbls, 3% for 11 mos.