Jan domestic taxpaid shipments down 400,000 bbls, 2.7%, estimates Matt Hein of Beer Inst. Coors built inventory in Dec, Miller soft and AB shipments ahead of depletions in 4th qtr, so slow Jan start no big surprise. Then too, Jan 02 up 4%, so comp tuff. But lotsa sources not bullish on biz so far in 03.

Since Coors began new mktg campaign, key tracking measures improved dramatically, sr veep mktg Ron Askew told Wall St, including awareness (up from 20 to 30%), purchase intent (30-45%), and consumption in last 30 days.  Yet Coors made no claim that its sales have turned corner.   “We’re into the zone where volume should be showing up,” prexy Leo Kiely said.  “That’s what’s confusing,” he added.   Coors has 03 earnings challenge too.  Coors earnings per share tripled in last 7 yrs, reminded CFO Tim Wolf, including 30% gain in 02.  Yet its price/earnings ratio is lowest in decade because of investor uncertainty.  Coors earnings will take hit in early 03 because of increased pension costs ($15 mil), increased interest expense ($12 mil) and Coors Jan loss in UK (near $10 mil), but Tim said savings from brewery closing in UK and restructuring in US will offset much of that.  Didn’t put number on it, but said 2003 can be “good year,” that Coors “can grow profit in 03.” 

As Michelob Ultra continues to sell well, but total beer biz a bit soft, AB keeps hi-end ball rollin' with intro of AB's orange-flavored Bacardi Silver 03, which comes out Mar 3 and Bare Knuckles Stout testing in DC, Philly, NYC and San Diego. It's already out on draft; kegs are $20 cheaper and can pour 24 more pints than Guinness kegs, reported Brand Week.

Add Wash to list of a dozen states seriously lookin’ at excise tax hike proposals. And it’s a whopper: from $8/bbl to over $31/bbl for big brewers, from $4.78/bbl to over $28 for micros. Pyramid founder George Hancock sounded proper note of alarm. Said small brewers “are looking at this and saying ‘This is the end of our business.’” Passage unlikely, wrote Seattle Times, but wacky proposals keep comin’ up.

That’s up 1 full share with 3%, 25,000-bbl gain. AB gained over 4 share last 3 yrs in Neb. Miller lost volume for 3rd straight yr in Neb, lost 2.1 share during that period, down to 13.9 share. Coors lost volume (-4%) and share (-0.4) in 02. Pabst off 7%, 6300 bbls. All Others up 0.3 share to 6.9

So speculates Euro press.  Holsten bd member, who lives in Westchester, NY of all places, upped stake to nearly 50% in #1 German brewer with about 9 share of 90-mil-bbl mkt.  He’s not talkin’ and Holsten sez “we are not in any talks.”  But Fin Times and others named usual suspects as potential buyers: S&N, Interbrew, Heineken, Carlsberg, and AB.  Also reportedly in play: big Austrian brewery BBAG. 

30-packs of Bud/Bud Light on sale for $19.99 in big Boston retail outlet, according to ad in Globe last week.  That’s much less of a discount than yrs back.  Coors Light, Miller Lite each goin’ for a buck less.  High Life all the way down to $13.99 for 30-pack.  Heineken at $19.99/case.  Corona 12-packs still at $9.99, along with Killian’s and Foster’s.  A buck higher: Sam, Bass, Smirnoff, Mike’s.  Labatt Blue, Rolling Rock 12-pack deals: $8.99, $7.99 respectively.

Modelo export growth accelerated to 14% in 4th qtr while FEMSA export growth slowed to 3% (both brewers export predominantly to US). For full yr, FEMSA export growth pulled back to 6% (about same pace as in 2001), while Modelo maintained double-digit growth pace. In Mexico, both brewers faced tuff Dec; net income declined in 4th qtr. But Modelo total volume still up 2.7%, while FEMSA down 1% in qtr. Modelo mkt share now up to 63% in Mexico, wrote Wall St Jnl.

Smirnoff Ice volume down 8% in US in 2d half 02, while revs off 5% “due to increasing competition,” Diageo reported today.  “While the RTD category has continued to grow and now represents nearly 5% of the sales value of the beer category” in US, sez Diageo, Smirnoff Ice’s share “declined” Jul-Dec.  Nothing said about Guinness beer brands in US, but Guinness brand just even worldwide.  Diageo sold Burger King chain and lost over $2 bil on deal.  Said Diageo wouldn’t make its financial targets, but stock up.

High-end segment – imports, specialty beers, malternatives and other above-premium-price products – passed 42 mil bbls, 20 share of US biz in 2002, INSIGHTS estimates. Up about 3 mil bbls in 02 and larger than Miller total for 1st time. That’s up 11 mil bbls, 35% and 4 share in 5 years. On remarkably steady growth pace. Up 7-8% each of last 5 yrs while US biz averaged just 1.2% growth.